The Mind of Bruce Bochy
Following a nice series victory of the Cardinals, I feel bad bringing some negativity into the world. That said, there’s something that needs to be observed: the contradictions of Bruce Bochy’s decision-making abilities. Who does and doesn’t get playing time seems to be arbitrarily judged off of…well…nothing.
What in God's name is going on in that size 8 head of his?
After a torrid spring, John Bowker was handed the starting job in right field. He took walks, hit for power, and overall looked poised to take full advantage of the opportunity he was given. Two weeks into the season, without justification, he lost his starting job. Nate Schierholtz took over in right, and for some reason Eugenio Velez took over in left while Mark DeRosa was nursing a bum hamstring. Bowker wasn’t even really struggling when this surprise benching took place (he was hitting .250/.308/.417 when he playing time starting getting sporadic).
Velez in the meantime has one hit in his last 22 at-bats while hitting out of the leadoff spot. Bochy’s obsession with getting him playing time aligned with this team struggling to hit at the onset of the series in San Diego. Put simply, when Eugenio Velez has been in the lineup, the team struggles to score runs. And yet somehow, he continues to get playing time over John Bowker, who’s been relegated to pinch-hitting duties. As such, he’s now being judged off what he does with one at-bat a game, while Velez and Schierholtz continue to not hit.
It would be one thing if Bowker got to start the first 2-3 months of the year, and struggled the entire time. But that’s not what happened. He was given two weeks and less than 40 at-bats to keep his starting job. Now imagine the stress it puts on a young hitter when he knows that every single time he’s at the plate, his job is at risk because his manager judges miniscule sample-sizes. There’s something to be said for the link between job security and performing well.
The harsh reality of it all is that when Aaron Rowand comes back off the DL, Bowker will probably sent to Fresno and Velez/Torres/Schierholtz will continue to share time in the outfield. The team will continue to struggle to score runs, fans will get frustrated, and Bruce Bochy, being the “players manager” he is, will continue to have a man-crush on Eugenio Velez. I really wish there was some justification for Bowker losing his starting job, but the truth seems to be that he was simply phased out by a manager who doesn’t want him in the lineup.
“while Velez and Schierholtz continue to not hit”: I have no idea why Velez is around; but Schierholtz currently has a line of .344 / .417 / .500, with an OPS of .917. This is a remarkable example of not hitting. Schierholtz is also defensively better than Bowker.
You don’t know, nor do I, why Bowker doesn’t play in LF, with DeRosa at 2B to make outfield space for him, or with DeRosa in RF and Schierholtz CF. But ignorance doesn’t entail deciding that “the truth seems to be” mere whim, a “man-crush,” or a dumb fascination with minuscule sample-sizes. Bowker has a history of hitting for power and exercising plate discipline in AAA and ST, but not doing so when he plays in a real ML season: there is a history a lot longer than this year behind his this year’s stats of two walks and 11 Ks in 40 AB, and it’s a history that involves looking at a batter and his swing, not simply the list of stats. In this case the looking has input, one presumes, from Hensley Meulens, who saw Bowker when he was making like Jimmy Foxx in AAA and who has seen him now in ST and in regular games.
Is a scenario necessarily right, in presuming rational behavior rather than pig-headed arbitrariness? No. But for rational people that presumption has considerable appeal.
Schierholtz also has a .393 BABIP, which is indicative of a huge regression and that he’s been more than lucky. The problem with Bochy’s treatment of Bowker is that he has yet to get enough consistent playing time to the point to where he can settle into a consistent rhythm at the plate. His playing time has gotten more and more sporadic, leading to his at-bats looking worse and worse. Looking at the playing time Velez has gotten, there really seems to be no statistical justification for him playing. He looks lost at the plate and in the field on a consistent basis.
And Bochy does have a fascination with sample sizes. Schierholtz is getting starts in right because he hit well on Bowker’s days off early on. Guys seem to get playing time on a game-by-game determination. Then you look at Velez who got more at-bats than he should of last season because he had 50 or so decent at-bats which were promptly followed by a regression of epic proportions.
Nick,
I’d like to point out your use of “selective stats” in this article.
You quote Bowker’s stats through the time he was starting to get benched: “he was hitting .250/.308/.417 when he playing time starting getting sporadic.” (That would be April 14 according to the game logs.)
You then say, “Velez in the meantime has one hit in his last 22 at-bats while hitting out of the leadoff spot.”
I would assume that how Velez was hitting BEFORE Bowker’s decreased PT would be more of a factor as to why Bochy might have started using him over Bowker.
And a quick look at Velez’ stats as of April 14 reveals as much:
Velez was batting .300/.364/.700 at the time Bowker’s PT started to decrease.
This makes peering into Bochy’s mind a lot like sipping duck soup if you ask me. He was simply going with the hotter bat.
Mystery solved.
Schierholtz’s swollen BAPIB may mean that he will slump severely, but in no way justifies asserting that he’s not hitting now (“Velez and Schierholtz continue to not hit”). S was anointed RF early in ST and lost the job to Bowker because he wasn’t showing plate discipline or hitting in ST. Surely you agree that putting lots of weight on ST is a bad idea. But Schierholtz needed a push, which he got by losing RF to Bowker. He has now, for the moment, earned the job back, walking more and striking out less (as to plate discipline), as well as hitting better.
You and I agree that Bowker should be ahead of Velez. But as to samples, we also agree that if Bochy swore by “game-by-game determination” Velez would be gone, and in the previous paragraph and earlier post I argue that Schierholtz’s replacing Bowker may very well have nothing to do with sample size. You don’t present any counterargument, just an assertion.
I note that when it comes to ineffective pitching, everyone seems to pounce on very small sample sizes, even those McCovens who are ready to hiss out an accusatory SSS for any impatience with young hitters who put themselves in jeopardy.
bruce bruce bruce… You don’t take lincecum out of the game with one out in the ninth after tim walks his first batter. Runner on first with two outs to go for timmy’s complete game and boche pulls Wilson out of the pen to lose lincecum’s 5th win of the year? Just stupid. For as awesome as tim lincecum is, boche is the opposite. Worst manager in the majors. When #55’s career is over, admit that you owe him at least a couple more wins. Bruce boche’s inability to manage the best pitching staff in baseball is evident. You don’t fix what isn’t broken. You don’t take the best pitcher in the league out of the game when he’s 8.1 innings in with 3 hits given up, 11 strike-outs and only about 106 pitches thrown. Give me my job back , Giants…
Sincerely, The last capable Giants manager. P.S. Hey bruce! Feel that warmth on your bottom side? That’s the hot seat, dog.
Nick,
I did not present a counter argument because I actually think – despite the numbers (selective or not) – Bowker is a better ball player than Velez.
In the 5 days since I posted that reply, Velez has gone from bad to worse to worst!
If the Giants want to be a serious player in the NL West standings come September, it will be Bowker – not Velez – that will help them get there.
Of course, it could be neither one of them, the way Schierholtz is playing right now.
Nick,
I did not present a counter argument because I actually think – despite the numbers (selective or not) – Bowker is a better ball player than Velez.
In the 5 days since I posted that reply, Velez has gone from bad to worse to worst!
If the Giants want to be a serious player in the NL West standings come September, it will be Bowker – not Velez – that will help them get there.
Of course, it could be neither one of them, the way Schierholtz is playing right now.